Villaraigosa Pulls Out

A sign that Mayor Villaraigosa may not be running for Governor of California? The Mayor is ditching this weekend's California Democratic State Convention in Sacramento, citing needing to deal with budget issues at home. Since we've never known Antonio Villaraigosa to miss a photo op and chance to gladhand - even when there's work to be done (remember his attending a Dodger game in the luxury box with owner Frank McCourt when the Valley was on fire last year?) - something must be up. Steve Maviglio of the California Majority Report suspects that Villaraigosa "couldn't compete in the convention buzz with the other major candidates gunning for gubernatorial prize," and that the Mayor fears "a cold shoulder from organized labor" over his recent budget policies and job cuts.

Vahedi Blasts Koretz Ethics

Getting down to the wire in the 5th Council District race. Candidate David Vahedi is accusing his opponent Paul Koretz of ethics violations and has filed a complaint against Koretz with City and State officials.  Vahedi claims that Koretz has violated borrowing and expenditure limits and is co-mingling campaign funds with other monies.  Vahedi campaign consultant Phil Giarrizzo accused Koretz of being a career politician "who will do anything to get elected." In the meantime, Koretz picked up the endorsement of a past CD5 Councilman, County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky.

Trutanich Offers Port Security Plan

City Attorney candidate, Carmen Trutanich, outlines his plan to enhance security and reduce the threat of trespassers at the Port of Los Angeles.

Los Angeles, April 14– Drawing attention to the need for stronger security protection and enforcement at the Port of Los Angeles, Carmen “Nuch” Trutanich today detailed a plan of action that would sharply reduce the threat of trespassers on Port property and bring greater law enforcement authority to the Los Angeles Port Police. By focusing on and enhancing the partnership with the Coast Guard, the Port Police and the L.A. City Attorney, Trutanich wants to bring a greater level of security protection to the port.

Trutanich is proposing that Port Police be given the right to have expanded enforcement authority to make arrests involving federal trespassing violations at the Port of Los Angeles. Those laws currently are only enforced through the U.S. Coast Guard. Trutanich plans to seek enabling legislation at the state level to allow Port Police to enforce the newly effective Transportation Workers Identification Credential “TWIC.” TWIC, which will be fully implemented at the Port effective today April 14th, is a federally issued identification card allowing unescorted access to Port property.

In addition to giving Port Police enforcement authority pursuant to TWIC, Trutanich proposes the creation of local laws against trespassers at the Los Angeles Port, which can then be prosecuted by the City Attorney. Port Police will be able to utilize these additional tools in everything from intercepting unauthorized entries to preventing street gang related cargo thefts. Trutanich also is calling for an expansion of existing cross-designation programs so that deputies in the City Attorney’s office can be cross designated as U.S Attorneys in order to seek harsher penalties under the federal laws.

“As Los Angeles City Attorney, I will have a responsibility to see that everything that can be done is being done to protect this critically important resource to our regional and national economy,” said Trutanich. “What is at stake is obvious – national security - 40% of the container traffic in the U.S. comes through the L.A. and Long Beach Ports and is at risk. With the creation of TWIC in 2006, the feds have taken a giant step in securing the ports around the nation. But the Coast Guard cannot be expected to do it all. Our Port Police are fully prepared and ideally suited to play a major role in this effort,” added Trutanich.

“The Port Police are the first responders to any incident at this port, whether at our terminals or throughout this massive area on land and on the water. We applaud Mr. Trutanich’s initiative and look forward to bringing the full force of our police agency to bear on this ongoing security threat,” said Rosario Ferrara, President of the Los Angeles Port Police Association.

Carmen Trutanich, a former Hard Core Gang prosecutor, has earned the support of thousands of local police including the Police Protective League, LA County Sheriff Lee Baca and District Attorney Steve Cooley.

Wendy Greuel Needs Your $$$

Onward To July 1st
It's hard to believe that election day was over one month ago and I am still so honored to have been elected the next City Controller of Los Angeles. During this time, I have been in regular contact with outgoing Controller Chick, and we've been working together to ensure a smooth and effective transition. In the weeks to come, I'll continue to communicate with you about the transition and about a special inauguration day event that I hope you'll be able to attend.

Share Your Ideas
I couldn’t have been elected Controller without your help and I want your continued input as I fight waste, fraud and abuse in city government. During this period of transition, please share your thoughts about what you think the Controller’s Office should focus on in 2009 and beyond by sending me your ideas at ideas@wendygreuel.com.

We Need Your Support
We need your help to retire costs incurred during the campaign. Please click here to contribute, and thank you for your generosity.

Cha-Ching!

ITEM NO. (27)
08-0600-S33
BUDGET AND FINANCE COMMITTEE REPORT relative to implementation of the Fiscal Year (FY)
2008-09 Adopted Budget - Special Parking Revenue Fund Surplus Declaration for FY 2007-08.
Recommendations for Council action, SUBJECT TO THE APPROVAL OF THE MAYOR:
1. DECLARE a Special Parking Revenue Fund surplus for FY 2007-08 of $56,260,500.
2. INSTRUCT the Los Angeles Department of Transportation, and AUTHORIZE the Controller, to
TRANSFER $56,260,500 from the Special Parking Revenue Fund to the Reserve Fund.
3. TRANSFER $56,260,500 from the Reserve Fund to Fund 100/58, Unappropriated Balance,
Account 0037, Reserve for Economic Uncertainties.
4. AUTHORIZE the City Administrative Officer (CAO) to make any technical adjustments required
to fulfill the intent of the Council.
Fiscal Impact Statement: The CAO reports that there is no impact on the General Fund from
approval of the above recommendations. Should the recommendations not be approved, the
General Fund deficit for 2008-09 will increase by $56.26 million. The recommendations are
consistent with the City Financial Policies.
Community Impact Statement: None submitted.

Krekorian Votes to Expand Relief to Unemployed Californians

Uses Federal Funds to Increase Unemployment Benefits and Expand Eligibility

SACRAMENTO – With California facing 10.5% unemployment statewide, Assistant Majority Leader Paul Krekorian (D-Burbank) Monday voted for legislation to make the state eligible for up to $3 billion in federal unemployment insurance funds available as part of President Barack Obama's economic recovery package. In addition to making California eligible for the federal funding, AB 3x 23 increases unemployment benefits and provides relief for more than 469,000 unemployed Californians by extending unemployment benefits.

“Immense economic turmoil requires new strategies to confront this statewide and global fiscal meltdown,” Krekorian said. “With this legislation, we will now be able to help people who have lost their jobs pay their bills and mortgages. I am pleased this bill will also help small businesses and shop owners keep their customers. As leaders of California, we must act to confront our greatest challenges – something we did Monday when we passed this legislation.”

AB 3x 23 updates state law to conform with the federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 signed into law on Feb. 17, 2009. These updates make California eligible to receive $3 billion from the federal government.

This legislation is part of an overarching attempt by the Assembly to help California’s most vulnerable people and industries. Part of that effort was its passage of the Economic Incentive and Job Creation bill that Krekorian authored and which the governor signed on Feb. 20, 2009.

That bill, AB X3 15, provided a needed incentive to localize film production – an unparalleled legislative package to help one of California’s signature industries; gave a boost to small businesses, one of the life bloods of our local economy; and updated the state’s tax code to encourage multi-state businesses to invest more in payroll and infrastructure in California.

“My legislation provided help to some of our main employment sources, infusing our state with the needed tools to move forward,” Krekorian said. “Its multi-pronged approach confronted multiple sectors of our troubled economy – sectors that needed help right away. I am confident that AB 3x 23 will do just the same.”

AB 3x 23 now moves to the Senate for consideration and approval.

Now for the other side

MEMO
TO: Trutanich Campaign
FR: Alex Evans; EMC Research, Inc.
DT: March 25, 2009
RE: Weiss Poll Results

The results the Weiss Campaign released yesterday (March 24, 2009) are inconsistent with our poll as well as with the election that occurred earlier this month.  Please note the following:

• Votes cast in the primary election showed a significant narrowing of the race from votes cast early by mail to those cast on Election Day, demonstrating that a trend toward Trutanich had already begun.  Our poll says that the trend toward Trutanich is continuing.
• Even our own early primary election polling showed Weiss with a lead, but it also showed that Trutanich would gain both affirmative votes cast for him as well as negative votes from the many voters repulsed by Weiss.  This is exactly what happened.  We operated under no illusions that we would only win votes in the affirmative or that a primary victory was possible.  The Weiss campaign spent its entire fortune — either thinking they could win outright in March, or because they ignored their internal polling.  We view this most recent release of data as encouraging; the Weiss campaign is likely again misreading public opinion.
• As noted above, Trutanich is going to win votes in the affirmative but also win votes from people who do not like Jack Weiss, and the latter group is large and growing.  Both polls show Weiss with an unfavorable rating at or above 20%, but note that 11% have a strongly unfavorable opinion of Weiss, nearly double the percentage who have a strongly favorable opinion.  Our poll shows that 73% of those with an unfavorable opinion of Weiss vote for Trutanich even though over half (52%) of those voters have not heard of Trutanich or have no opinion of him.  So, Yes — some people are voting for Trutanich just because they know the real Jack Weiss.
• What is particularly strange about the Weiss poll is not that Trutanich is running ahead of his name identification, but that the vote and the favorable ratings of the candidates are almost exactly the same.
• Their poll: Weiss favorable 41%, Weiss vote 41%;
• Their poll: Trutanich favorable 26%, Trutanich vote 28%.

• This essentially means that there is no one with an unfavorable opinion of Weiss voting for Trutanich.  Including the likely negative votes for both candidates — even using the Weiss poll’s numbers — produces a clearer understanding of the race.  Adding 73% of Weiss’s unfavorable rating (20% in the Weiss poll) gives 14.6 points to Trutanich’s vote. Just over half (55%) of those with an unfavorable opinion of Trutanich vote for Weiss.  Adding 55% of Trutanich’s unfavorable rating (7% in both polls) gives Weiss 3.9 points.  This puts the candidates nearly even: about 45% for Weiss and about 43% for Trutanich.
• The bottom line: The race is even, and the Weiss campaign sure seems to be acting like it’s even. Our recommendation is that Trutanich should believe our poll and the Weiss campaign’s actions.  Trutanich has come a long way in a short time, and against a better-funded opponent.  With the time remaining and with competitive resources, Trutanich will win.

Weiss Well Ahead In Name ID And in Head To Head Vote

Weiss Well Ahead In Name ID And in Head To Head Vote

A survey of 805 likely Los Angeles voters shows Jack Weiss with a 13 point initial lead over Carmen Trutanich entering into the runoff campaign:  41% to 28%.  This question was asked before any information was given to voters except ballot titles.

Weiss’ lead over Trutanich is based on a solid advantage in name identification:

·         41% favorable for Weiss compared to 20% unfavorable, more than a 2 to 1 positive-to-negative ratio.

·         26% favorable for Trutanich compared to 7% unfavorable.

A matchup of positive paragraphs from the two candidates – with language drawn entirely from Trutanich’s website and campaign materials and every effort made to be fair to both candidates – gives Weiss a 20 point lead:   52% to 32%.

Weiss maintains a solid lead among both men and women, Valley and City voters, across racial, ethnic, and religious lines, across partisan lines, and most importantly, among highly reliable municipal election voters as well as those who vote reliably in statewide primary elections and are likely to vote this May for the statewide propositions on the ballot.  Weiss is also ahead in his Council District 5.

Weiss’ lead held solid regardless of how we modeled the likely May electorate.

Trutanich Is a Poor Fit for L.A. Voters

Later in the survey, we measured voter reaction to the attacks that the Trutanich campaign has made on Weiss, and we also measured voter reaction to potential Trutanich vulnerabilities, including, but not limited to:

·         Trutanich’s close ties to the National Rifle Association and the pro-gun lobby.

·         His long record defending corporate polluters accused of environmental crimes -- he even wrote a manual on how to get away with environmental crimes.

·         His history supporting union-busting.

·         His 20-year record as a criminal defense lawyer, including defending those accused of sexual battery and assault, drug smuggling, and drunk driving.

·         His support for conservative Republican candidates and causes.

As one might expect, voters reacted quite strongly to this information.  A conservative, pro-gun, union-busting, anti-environmental defense lawyer with unsavory clients is, not surprisingly, unappealing to many Los Angeles voters.

Note that our poll was tough on Weiss as well, using attacks drawn directly from Trutanich’s public statements and commercials.    Matching up negative-only paragraphs about the two candidates yields a 50% to 28% lead for Weiss, which is a few points wider than the lead after the exchange of positive paragraphs.

Bottom Line:   Weiss Enters The Runoff With Strong Advantages:

·         He starts with 15 point lead in favorable name ID.

·         He starts ahead by 10-15 points depending on who actually will vote in the May election.

·         A fair match-up of positive statements about the two candidates widens his lead substantially.

·         A simulated exchange of negatives expands Weiss’ lead further.

·         He will have a major advantage with Jewish voters, who should comprise about 10% of the voters in May.

·         With the endorsement of Mayor Villaraigosa and most of the other Latino elected officials in the city as well as La Opinion, Weiss should earn a large majority of Latino votes, which will comprise something like 15% to 20% of the voters in this election.

·         Given Trutanich’s involvement with union-busting, Weiss will earn the strong support of most of the labor movement in the city.

·         Given’s Trutanich’s record on the environment (compared to Weiss’ award-winning leadership on this issue), voters who care about clean and safe air, water, and beaches have a clear choice.

·         A comparison of the two candidates over the last two decades on public safety also gives Weiss a real advantage:  Weiss spent that time as a federal prosecutor and then the leader on the city council in protecting safety; Trutanich spent the last two decades as a defense lawyer protecting criminals and corporate polluters from punishment.

Our Methodology

In putting a sample together for this survey, we were faced with the difficult challenge of trying to forecast who would vote in this coming May election.    This election combines a low-turnout municipal race with a statewide ballot measure with an unpredictable turnout.   To address this situation, we drew a sample that includes both reliable municipal election voters as well as those whose voting history suggests they are likely to participate because of the statewide ballot measures. 

We then completed 800 telephone interviews with voters from this sample between March 19 and 23, 2009, yielding a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.4% at a 95% confidence level.  Five percent of the interviews were in Spanish, and 7% were completed with voters who listed wireless numbers on the voter file.

Given the uncertainly of who will vote, we wanted to look at different possible turnout models.   Weiss has an 11 point to 19 point initial lead in all of our turnout models, as we varied participation by municipal election-only versus statewide election voters.  All of our turnout models weighted up results from the 5^th Council District to reflect the likely impact of the contested Council race there.

What About the Trutanich Poll?

The polling memo released last week by the Trutanich campaign claims that the race is tied.   These results simply do not match our survey findings and some of it seems unlikely.

For example, the Trutanich survey claims that his favorable name ID is 24% but his initial vote is 36%.   So their poll memo suggests that Trutanich’s initial vote total exceeds his favorable name ID by 50% [i.e. (36%-24%)/24% = 50%].  This is possible but would be very unusual in a nonpartisan race.

Our survey finds very similar name ID figures for Trutanich, but with a very different result in the initial head-to-head vote question:  that his vote proportion (28%) is similar to his favorable name ID (26%).  Our poll also finds the same to be true for Weiss:  his favorable rating (41%) is identical to his first vote proportion (41%).

The Trutanich poll memo also claims that he leads Weiss among women.  Our poll gives Weiss a 12 point lead among women.

Again, the reader should note that our basic finding that Weiss has a solid initial lead in this race does not change even if we weight up or down municipal election voters or statewide election-only voters or CD 5 voters. 

In other words, we cannot find a reasonable sample model that comes close to duplicating the results of the Trutanich poll.  As the Trutanich polling memo does not share the sample model, it is impossible to judge exactly how theirs was constructed and the assumptions they made.  The Trutanich memo also does not indicate whether its initial vote question was asked before any information was given to voters about the candidates.

City of LA Sponsors "American Idol" Event

MOTION (PERRY - ZINE) relative to declaring the American Idol Viewing Event on March 25,2009 a Special Event (fees and costs absorbed by the City = $500).

I thought the City was broke?

Poll: Trutanich, Weiss in dead heat

Los Angeles, March 19–In spite of being outspent nearly 2-1 in the primary election, Carmen Trutanich has surged into a statistical dead heat against Councilmember Jack Weiss as supporters of the candidates who did not make the runoff move toward Trutanich.

According to EMC Research, a survey of 502 likely voters shows Trutanich jumping 8% since Election Day pulling even with Weiss in a head to head match up—both candidates capturing 35%. 30% of voters remain undecided. The survey has a margin of error of 4.4%.

“Despite Weiss’s robust campaign spending, the data indicate that the primary campaign has left Weiss in tough political shape,” said pollster Alex Evans. “Women, the target of most of Weiss’s campaign advertising, support Trutanich over Weiss and fewer than one-third of voters (31%) have a favorable opinion of Weiss.”

More bad news for Weiss is that he appears to have no political base having alienated his own Council District’s constituents. Twice as many voters in Council District 5 rate Weiss unfavorably as favorably (34 percent to 15 percent, respectively). Though lesser known, Trutanich is viewed overwhelmingly positively. About one- fourth of voters (24%) have a favorable opinion of Trutanich, while only seven percent rate him unfavorably. Turnout is expected to be strongest in this district because it’s the only district with a concurrent runoff in the race for City Council on May 19.

As voters hear more about each candidate, they are more supportive of Trutanich. After hearing both positive and negative messages about each candidate, 57 percent of voters say they support Trutanich, compared with 27 percent for Weiss.

Carmen Trutanich, a former Hard Core Gang prosecutor, has earned the support of thousands of local police including LA County Sheriff Lee Baca and District Attorney Steve Cooley.

Mmm...pollo y birria tacos...

Water store in Hollywood